CHF: Henderson hätte bescheideneres Kursziel empfohlen

In ihrem neuesten Devisenkommentar räumen die Spezialisten von Henderson Global Investors ein, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank SNB mit der Bindung des Schweizer Frankens zum Euro wohl die momentan bestmögliche Lösung gewählt hat.

In einer Zeit, in der die Politiker mit Kommentaren und Regulierungen auf mitunter gefährliche Art und Weise die Marktkräfte stören, sei auch die Schweiz zu einer politischen Lösung gezwungen worden, um die Wirtschaft zu schützen. Immerhin sei die Bindung des Frankens zum Euro auf einem Niveau von über 1.20 eine strukturiertere Lösung als die vorangegangenen Massnahmen der SNB, meinen die Henderson-Experten.

Sie hätten allerdings ein realistischeres, bescheideneres Kursziel von 1.10 empfohlen. „Aus Inflationssicht würde dies die Schweiz in Zukunft weniger kosten“, betont das Währungsteam unter Leitung von Bob Arends. Falls die globalen Verwerfungen noch lange anhalten, bilde der Zeitrahmen das grösste Risiko: „Wird die SNB in sechs Monaten noch genug Reserven haben, oder muss Hildebrand dann die Bernhardinerhunde zu Hilfe rufen, damit diese die Schweizer Wirtschaft mit ihren Fässchen beleben“, fragen die Analysten skeptisch.

Lesen Sie nachfolgend den vollen Kommentar des Devisenteams in Englisch:

Both developed and emerging markets had a busy agenda last week, especially on Thursday. Risk sentiment reversed nearly every day closing the week with a substantial sell-off reminding us problems are far from over.
Quick summary of events last week:

BOJ, ECB, BOE, BoC, RBA all left their interest rates unchanged as did Poland, Russia, Malaysia, Korea, Philippines and Indonesia. We believe this to be the appropriate course of action with exception, perhaps, of Korea (head inflation rose from 4.7% to 5.3% in August). The week started with a beaten down sentiment following disappointing US payrolls data. This “risk off” move was reversed on Tuesday when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) placed a floor under EURCHF at 1.20 with Hildebrand committing to unlimited intervention. Unrest in the Middle East is increasing between Turkey and Israel, which we expect to weigh on their currencies. We also expect downward trend on South African Rand after their manufacturing sector signalled a contracting output. Despite rate cuts of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to stimulate spending, numbers are hardly encouraging. SNB's move positively influenced Hungarian Forint, (more on this below). Risk sentiment returned by mid week when the Constitutional Court ruling in Germany confirmed the legality of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the Eurozone bailouts. The release of strong German production numbers further added to “risk on” mood. There was also some positive news in Australia where GDP expanded in Q2 and in China where officials reportedly said the Chinese Yuan (CNY) would be fully convertible by 2015, the year in which International Monetary Fund (IMF) will next review the (Special Drawing Rights) SDR composition. Obama proposed his stimulus package plan of US$447bn on Thursday which led to a limited reaction in the markets. As with most big events in the last few weeks markets want to see bolder actions but in times of re-election that might just be asking for too much. Not so for Zapatero, the Spanish PM. He is proving that there are still some left who will do what it takes regardless of flirtation with political suicide. (If politicians can think this way, there may be hope left…) By the end of the week, focus again shifted to Berlusconi (the anti hero) and Greece. When news came about Germany’s Stark leaving the ECB’s Board markets sold off and the Euro came down by 3% from beginning of the week.

G10:
We would like to take you through our reasoning as to whether we believe SNB's action to be appropriate. In our weekly updates we have stated before that doing nothing is sometimes the best option. So, should SNB have fought the current inflow into Swiss Franc or should they have done nothing? Under any other circumstance we would say they should do nothing and let the markets decide. However, today we are dealing with financial markets where prices are not simply defined by supply and demand anymore but where politicians have surged their way into markets in such an intrusive way that they move prices by speech only. Policy makers are more powerful then ever. That such approach might be destructive, or even lethal if you add some more costly regulation to capital markets, is something we all have given consideration. From this perspective, Hildebrand had little choice left than to stop the massive overvaluation of the Swiss Franc before it would torpedo the Swiss economy. There are two questions which remain then: First question is whether this is the best alternative? Our answer is “yes” as it is a more structural solution than his previous moves, which we believed were only carrying water to the sea. Furthermore by placing the ceiling on the Swiss franc versus the euro, he confirmed his belief in the currency, i.e. the EURO. He has the benefit of preventing a break out of one of Switzerland’s main trading partners. The second question is about the height of the peg, and the costs involved with it. At 1.20 target the Swiss economy will still be affected negatively and we don't expect Swiss franc to retreat by itself to previous levels of 1.40. We would have preferred to see a somehow lower more realistic target of 1.10 which would have cost the Swiss less in the future from an inflationary point of view. There is one big downside to this solution: If the global deterioration continues for more than six months will the SNB still have enough reserves, or will Hildebrand have to whistle the Swiss mountain dogs in with the barrels on their collar to revive the Swiss economy? Only time will tell, but for sure this can turn out to be a costly price tag, let's hope no Soros alter ego gets to challenge his deep pockets.

EM:
Worth mentioning is Hungary as we see an increased risk with GDP numbers showing no growth in Q2 with sharp contraction in investments. The little growth they have seen this year was coming from net exports to Europe, which is exactly where the biggest external risk lies at the moment. Although the Hungarian Forint initially gained by the intervention of the SNB -most loans in Hungary are CHF denominated- the announcement on Friday of the Hungarian government to allow FX loans to be repaid at a fixed rate sent the currency back downwards.

Week ahead:
India and Russia have interest rate decisions and plenty of economic indicators for Jul/Aug in LATAM, Asia and EMEA.