26.04.2024, 11:38 Uhr
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UK General Election pre-positioning
John Stopford, Investec Asset Management, gives a comment on positioning in the Investec Global Multi-Asset Income Fund ahead of the UK general election.
The opinion polls suggest that the UK election outcome has become less certain and there is likely to be an unusually large margin of error around the potential result. We think the most likely outcome is a Tory majority of c.50 seats, but the chance of a hung parliament or labour victory could be as high as 30%. To complicate matters further formal Brexit negotiations are due to begin just over a week after the election. This suggests significant potential for big moves in Sterling and UK assets in the next days and weeks.
In the Investec Global Multi-Asset Income Fund, we are going into the election with a small short position in the pound, and some exposure to UK exporters in equities, but we have also bought both one month calls and puts on Sterling. Our inclination is to fade large moves in either direction viewing the pound as likely to be range bound between 1.35 and 1.20, albeit with a downside bias given Brexit uncertainty.
