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Trade conflict with USA not hurting China long term
Sean Taylor from DWS believes that the Chinese economy will emerge from its trade conflict with the USA without lasting damage.
From a historical point of view, Chinese equities are still not cheap after the price decline of the past months, but valuations do now seem to become more attractive, thinks Sean Taylor, CIO Asia Pacific at DWS. "Faced with mid-term elections, we expect US President Donald Trump to impose sooner rather than later punitive tariffs on Chinese imports to the tune of 500 billion dollars", he said. Taking global five-year view, Taylor thinks it is likely that US companies are more reliant on the Chinese market than Chinese companies are on the US market.
Intra-regional trade in Asia should increase
Furthermore, this trade conflict will prompt the Chinese government to bolster domestic demand and accelerate its One Belt, One Road progress, predicts Taylor. "Ultimately the country will seek improving relationships with other Asian countries, which should increase trade within the region", he explained. In particular he expects members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to benefit from these developments. These include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The CIO for APAC does not see any sign of a Chinese property bubble that will affect the region.
Chinese government has no interest in a Renminbi devaluation
Overall Taylor continues to forecast the Chinese economy at growth of 6.5% this year and 6.3% next year. In terms of the Renminbi Dollar exchange rate over the coming year, he expects the Chinese currency to weaken to around 7. However, he does not expect to see any devaluation as a consequence of the trade conflict with the USA. "China continues to pursue long-term reforms and as such needs a stable currency", said Taylor.
Strong earnings momentum supports Chinese stock market
Despite price falls over recent months, Chinese equities are still not cheap, but the valuation gap is becoming more attractive. In terms of strategy, it is crucial to select the right sectors. "We continue to favor equities in the new economy as well as healthcare, education, tourism and lifestyle sectors". This is supported by profit development from companies listed on the Chinese equity market. "This year we could see earnings growth of 15% and we expect 15% to 16% next year", Taylor stated.
